Luck Matters

Let us acknowledge her.

Luck matters a lot in our lives. Even if we don't acknowledge it, it's still there, playing its hand, influencing us and everything around us.

We love stories of people who ‘took control’ of their circumstances and triumphed. But we forget that these are nothing but narratives that were constructed after-the-fact, that they explain things clearly and linearly and reason luck away; we then conclude that everything is controllable, at least to a point. We forget how messy and uncertain things are as they develop.

The story of Jeff Bezos is a wonderful example. It is widely known that he quit his job on Wall Street and wrote a business plan for an online bookstore as he drove across the country with his family to Seattle. He then launched the business from a garage selling nothing but books and gradually opened new markets and offered new services, all done through sheer determination, skill and hard work. That story is largely right, but incomplete.

A lot of external factors beyond Bezos’s control coalesced to put strong winds behind his back. For starters, he was born in the US in a unique stretch of peace, growth and prosperity. The world was globalizing and freely trading goods and services, but also ideas and technology. The pool of talent in the US was growing like never before, not just from home-grown talent, but from some of the smartest folks in the world flocking to the US.

Amazon launched in July 1995, when the Internet was well established, stable and going mainstream. Millions of people were joining every day and there were far fewer sites to visit, and even fewer that were interesting or useful. Online payment systems were relatively new, but they were there and they worked. The shipping infrastructure to deliver books quickly and cheaply was also already in place, built by someone else.

All these factors converged to help Bezos secure his dream. If any one of these had not existed or had broken along the way, the entire Jeff Bezos and Amazon story could be completely different. Jeff was smart and hard working, but he was also lucky.

Luck is not all that matters. The people that benefit from bouts of good luck are the ones that earned it. The people that put in the hard work, that applied their intelligence and developed foresight; in other words, they are prepared to take advantage of opportunities when they arise. Seizing an opportunity requires the wisdom to recognize it and the courage and confidence to act. Neither of those things is easy to acquire. Both must be acquired ahead of time.

Yes, Jeff Bezos had many tailwinds, but he had the intelligence, wisdom and foresight to see the opportunity and the guts to go after it. He also never became complacent; his founder’s drive continued as he pushed his talented team to innovate into new products and services, growing it into the Amazon we know today.

We should all make room for luck in our lives, because it's there, whether we like it or not, whether we acknowledge it or not.

Be intentional about your choices. Design your life to maximize your chances of encountering good luck. Who you marry, who you surround yourself with, who you know, who knows you, where you live, what industry you work in and what you do every day are all important factors that will affect the frequency and quality of opportunities presented to you.

Just as important, you should prepare. Educate yourself, read, learn new skills, meet new people and push out of your comfort zone. If you wait until you see a clear opportunity, it'll be too late.

You can also prepare for the inevitable bouts of bad luck. Live within your means, save money and invest. Stay sharp and healthy. Use debt wisely. Be kind and help others. Stay close to family and cultivate a circle of trusted friends.

Because luck is a whimsical lady and ignoring her does you no good. So let’s acknowledge her presence and do our best to learn to play the game by her rules.